Edward Buckles was 13 when Hurricane Katrina hit his hometown in 2005. In the aftermath, 1,400 — mainly Black — New Orleans residents died.
That spring, researchers predicted the 2005 season to be the most intense in U.S. history, but a 2007 study concluded that confusing directions from authorities, religious faith, and financial barriers led to many Black Southerners believing they could ride out the storms.
This confusion and pain and its impact on Black youth are captured in Buckles’ recent award-winning documentary, Katrina Babies. The film focuses on those left behind, and it forecasts troubles that may burden a new generation of children if warnings aren’t heeded. This year’s tropical storm activity is expected to outpace 2005’s record flurry, and it may start earlier and persist even longer. A typical storm season lasts from June until November.
Nearly two decades after Katrina, this summer will test the nation’s commitment to adjusting to the consequences of climate change and its focus on protecting the most vulnerable from its threats.
“These hurricanes are not like your parents or grandparents’ storms,” said J. Marshall Shepherd, director of the University of Georgia’s Atmospheric Sciences Program. “It only takes one storm, one Hurricane Katrina, Andrew, or Ida, to rearrange your community forever.”
Black communities are roughly two times more likely than the general population to experience hurricanes. Yet, for generations, government agencies have allowed these storms to affect life in Black neighborhoods, stunting generational wealth opportunities, increasing homelessness, and weakening the physical and mental health of communities.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the government agency that forecasts weather, predicts that up to 25 storms will form, well above the average of 14 storms. Scientists at the University of Pennsylvania are predicting a record 33 named storms, while the lowest major prediction, coming from Colorado State University, expects 21 storms.
Like this year, the issues that supercharged Katrina were well-documented months before the storm hit. But in the early minutes of Buckles’ archival documentary, you’re shown two scenes with children that exemplify the lack of foresight aided by these barriers. Now obviously ominous, a young Black girl looks directly into the camera while asking the adult filming if they plan to prepare for the storm. The person directly behind the camera quickly says no.
Sliced with that footage, a young Black boy runs across a porch, giggling that “people are getting ready for the hurricane like it’s nothing.”
The film doesn’t mention if the children survived or not. But, those who’ve lived through these storms’ wraths and those who research their blows on Black communities hope history won’t be repeated, and people will stand more prepared in the face of destruction. But at the end of the day, as Katrina proved, preparation only goes so far when man-made racial inequities and discrimination make these natural disasters more deadly.
“They’re [government agencies] not adjusting for the challenges our communities face,” explained Vernon Morris, director of the School for Mathematical and Natural Sciences at Arizona State University. He spent 55 days at sea in the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico, tracking hurricanes during the record 2005 flurry.
“Leaders might say, ‘Well, we gave a warning and they didn’t listen.’ But who actually went into the community, and were they trusted? The answer is no most of the time. Black communities are in desperate need of representation for disaster preparation.”
Capital B will be compiling a list of tips and tools to help people evade the weight of these storms in the coming months. Is there a pressing question or a tip you’d like to share? You can do so here.
Why preparation is so important
If the aggressive predictions ring true, the Atlantic basin would surpass 21 named storms for the second time in four years and the third time since 2005. Between 1851 and 2005, the Atlantic had broken 20 named storms only once, in 1933. This reality underscores how human-caused climate change is rewiring our lives.
As hurricanes intensify in the coming decades, 1 in 5 Black households will be at regular risk of storm damage from hurricanes or tropical storms in the South, compared to 1 in 10 homes for the general population.
Black households also face higher rates of displacement, prolonged recovery times, and difficulties in accessing resources for rebuilding. This contributes to property damage from storms becoming one of the bigger threats that Black folks face in their ability to transfer generational wealth.
The storms have deeper effects on the Black economy as well. Black workers in the South are more likely to work in unprotected industries, so Black unemployment typically increases following storms. Following natural disasters, Black residents lose an average of $27,000, while white people gain an average of $126,000 through recovery subsidies.
In New Orleans, for example, Michael Dejoie has said every storm that has hit his neighborhood since Hurricane Katrina has contributed to gentrifying his block. Today, he estimates that he is the only full-time resident living on his street, as most have been turned into short-term rentals.
Residents either abandoned their properties entirely because they couldn’t afford to pay for repairs, home insurance, and property taxes, or took below-market offers to get out from under the stress of constant storms and destruction. As a result, there are now more Airbnbs in New Orleans than buildings for long-term rent as the city has bled Black residents.
“There is no coming back from that,” Dejoie told Capital B last year.
Read More: Will FEMA’s New Rules Shorten Black Communities’ Road to Recovery?
Earlier this year, the federal agency tasked with hurricane recovery efforts instituted new rules to bring Black communities along on the road to recovery. The new rules will help disaster victims get financial support quicker with less paper shuffling and fewer rules. This hurricane season will test their effectiveness.
However, some experts are fearful that the rules may be weakened or not fully actualized if a new president is elected this fall. Following Hurricane Katrina, studies have shown that political factors shade a president’s decision to deny or approve recovery aid and policies, and they’re heightened during presidential election years.
“If [former President Donald] Trump gets back in office, it may be that things don’t change or go back to the same because some of those people couldn’t care less about us or climate change,” said Hilton Kelley, the founder of a nonprofit environmental group in Southeast Texas.
Read More: How Natural Disasters Create Voting Crises
At the same time, the potential increased length of this storm season may also have implications for the November election. Hurricanes can disrupt elections by damaging polling stations, displacing voters, and hindering access to voting — and as Capital B has reported, these storms are often used as forms of voter suppression.
In 2022, Capital B found how Hurricane Ian, which hit Florida’s coast, led to the disproportionate closure of voting stations in Black neighborhoods. The overlapping issues are why Black advocates are calling on communities to prepare in advance.
“The voices of Black communities still aren’t included in the larger conversations, which is why it’s important that individuals make as many of their own plans as possible,” said Morris, who worked on disaster communications and recovery in Louisiana after Katrina.
“Like nothing we’ve seen”
Government meteorologists predict that of the potential 25 tropical storms expected to form, eight to 13 are likely to be hurricanes, including four to seven major hurricanes. Researchers say the prevalence of these major storms are impacted by climate change and today’s record-hot ocean temperatures driving destructive weather.
Warmer water enhances the conditions necessary for hurricane formation by providing more heat and moisture and influencing atmospheric stability and wind patterns. Recently, the waters around the U.S. have been boiling. Every day for more than a year, the ocean has broken temperature records.
“This is record-breaking, like nothing we’ve seen,” Marshall explained.
In April, ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and around the Gulf of Mexico reached levels you’d typically expect in August. This, coupled with the fact that over the past two decades, tropical storms have proven to intensify about three times faster than they did between 1971 and 1990, equals a dangerous brew.
The reason? Industrial pollution.
Oceans absorb over 90% of Earth’s excess heat, which has reached historic levels due to greenhouse gasses that are driving temperatures up and strengthening storms. Interestingly, the Gulf Coast, frequently hit by hurricanes, houses nearly half of the nation’s refining capacity. These operations contribute to storms’ prevalence, which then disrupt operations and cause toxic contamination in surrounding communities.
The erraticness of this season has experts urging residents to begin preparing for the storms now, whether that means mapping out evacuation routes or medical needs or fortifying your properties. Even in a relatively quiet season, storms are intensifying so quickly that you might have as little as two days warning before they hit.
“We need to dispel this idea that people don’t necessarily need to be adaptive because they have these benchmarks in their mind about surviving past storms,” Shepherd said.
“That doesn’t mean anything anymore.”